Non-Farm Employment Change- Unemployment rate 7/10/2022

Non-Farm Employment Change

Determines the level of change in the level of people employed during the past month, with the exception of the agricultural sector
Job creation is an important indicator of economic recovery, which is closely related to the conditions of human resources and a large part of the gross domestic product
The US economy likely added 250,000 jobs in September of 2022, which will be the smallest job increase since December 2020 and down from an average of 438 thousand in the first eight months of the year, as higher interest rates and prices begin to take their toll. Economy. However, it still points to a tight labor market and job gains above the monthly average of 167,000 in 2010, pushing employment about 500,000 above the pre-pandemic level. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is likely to remain at 3.7% and wages are up 0.3% m/m, the same as in August while annual wage growth eased to 5.1% from 5.2%

Expectations for today's statement and how it affects the currency

The estimate for today's data is 248,000 jobs
If the data is released above expectations, the impact on the currency will be positive and vice versa

Unemployment rate

The unemployment rate determines the proportion of the total labor force that is not working and actively seeking a job during the past quarter

The US unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent in August of 2022, the highest level since February and above market expectations of 3.5 percent. The number of the unemployed increased by 344 thousand to 6.014 million, while employment levels increased by 442 thousand to 158.732 million. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate rose to a five-month high of 62.4% in August from 62.1% in July

Expectations for today's statement and how it affects the currency

Markets expect the unemployment rate to reach 3.7% today
In the event that the unemployment rate recorded a reading higher than expectations, we will have a negative impact on the currency, as it indicates a rise in unemployment and vice versa

A reminder about the data released during this week related to employment, unemployment and the economy in general, which gives us an idea of ​​the result of today's report

The personal consumption expenditures price index recorded a positive reading of 0.6%, higher than expectations that indicated 0.5% (positive result)

The manufacturing PMI recorded a negative reading of 50.9, lower than expectations that were indicating 52.5 (positive result

The Employment Opportunities Statement recorded a negative reading of 10.07M, less than we had expected to point to 11.04M (negative result)

The Private Sector Employment Change Index (ADP) recorded a positive reading of 208K, higher than expectations of 200K (positive result)

Unemployment Claims came in at a negative 219k, higher than expectations of 205k (negative result)

The Services PMI recorded a positive reading of 56.7, higher than expectations that were indicating 56 (positive result)

Our forecast for today's employment data

As we mentioned above, the majority of the data issued to the United States was positive, indicating the possibility of an increase in employment data for this week, and there are also two main points that must be focused on to anticipate the rate of change in employment, firstly, the improvement in the private sector jobs change index (ADP) and its recording of a positive reading, and secondly The Fed raised the interest rate, as expectations indicated, by 75 basis points, not higher than the two expectations, which maintains the possibility of improvement in the labor sector and employment. Based on these reasons, we expect a positive reading of the employment report in the private sector.
The unemployment rate will not change much in the recent period, as it records rates of 3.6% and 3.7%, with reference to the negative data recorded in the unemployment claims rates, we expect to maintain a high level in the unemployment rate

Data release time

The data will be released at exactly 3:30 pm Mecca time