Weekly Overview 31/10/2022

US Dollar Index

The US dollar index declined last week by about 2.30%, affected by the decline recorded by the US 10-year bonds by 7.10%, as this decline was expected for the US dollar as a corrective decline before completing its general upward trend.
An upcoming week for this indicator, as it includes several important economic data, most notably the US employment data at the end of the week, and the US Federal Reserve interest decision on Wednesday. For these reasons, we expect volatile movements for this indicator as a result of the positive or negative data release.
Technically, the pair is still trading in a general bullish trend, and the decline that it recorded last week touched the support area that indicates the possibility of a reversal through it (the support area is located between the levels of 110 and 109.075), in the medium term if the top of the highest level is recorded. 111.020 The next target for this pair will be at the level of 111,820, and if the bottom is recorded at the lowest level of 109.075, it will open the way for a decline to the level of 107.670, and this level represents the maximum correction for this indicator in the event that the positive framework is maintained

Gold

Gold declined with the opening of this week's trading session, as a result of the rise in the US dollar index, with optimism about raising interest rates by 75 basis points during this week
The retreat on gold breached the level of 1638.861, which indicates a further decline to the level of 1626,770 and the buying opportunities on gold have become unavailable.
Note: We expect many fluctuations in gold prices for this week with each release of the US dollar news

Crude Oil

Oil witnessed the first monthly rise since May before the start of large production cuts by OPEC +, which is scheduled to start tomorrow, that is, Tuesday, November 1
Technically, crude oil is still trending to the upside and the targets are far away and are located at 89.60, 92.24 and 97.16 levels.
Maintaining the 81.29 level will maintain the bullish momentum, but if a bottom is recorded below it, oil prices will push oil prices for more corrective decline to the level of 78.67 as a first station and the level of 76 as a second and final station to maintain the positive frame

Euro against US Dollar

Last week, the euro witnessed a decline against the US dollar despite the interest rate hike by the European Central by 75 basis points, and this is due to the pricing of the interest rate hike before its appearance, which led to a decline in the euro at the time of the interest decision. The euro is also continuing its decline at the beginning of this week as a result of the rise in the dollar The American result of optimism after raising the interest rates for the United States
Technically, in the medium term, the euro breached the 0.99257 level and recorded a bottom below, which supports the negative scenario for this pair, and the next target is at the 0.98737 level

British Pound against US Dollar

An important and expected week against the pound against the US dollar, as the markets await the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve on the evening of Wednesday, November 2, and expectations indicate an interest rate hike by 75 basis points, followed by the British Central Bank’s decision on Thursday, November 3, and expectations indicate a rate hike by 75 basis points.
It is better to just look at the daily frame to avoid the many fluctuations that will happen as a result of interest and risk mitigation decisions, the trend is still bearish for this pair and traders should monitor the 1.17381 level in case it breaks upwards and records a top above or maintains it and gives a negative signal matching the news, which will represent an opportunity New sale for this pair

US Dollar against Canadian Dollar

This pair is rising at the beginning of this week's trading, with the dollar index rising, maintaining the level of 1.34955, a support line that will not record a bottom below for about a month, and also this pair will not record any serious breach and record a top of the highest level 1.38664, which pushes this pair to enter In a horizontal trading range, the interest rate decision of the United States is awaited, which may take it out of its horizontal range

US Dollar against Japanese Yen

Despite the Bank of Japan's interventions to support the local currency, the Japanese yen fell again as a result of the Bank of Japan maintaining its ultra-low interest rate policy, although it raised inflation expectations for this year, and Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda also pledged to maintain its monetary easing policy.
Technically, despite the decline achieved on this pair, the bullish trend is still valid and we do not have any breach of a major lower high so far (on the daily frame), until the trend changes from bullish to bearish, the level of 140.254 must be breached and a bottom recorded below and here we are talking The decline of nearly 800 points and this decline is excluded as a result of the conflicting monetary policies between the two currencies, the US dollar and the Japanese yen, as well as the possibility of raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve for this week, which supports the bullish trend and raises the possibility of a rise again to touch the psychological level of 150 again

US Dollar against Swiss Franc

The pair touched the 1.00801 level, but it will not close above, as it declined again to form a candle with a negative pattern, and it also recorded the bottom of the lowest level 0.99757, which indicates more downside on the four-hour frame, to the level of 0.98126, but the result of the news for this week The rise in the dollar index as a result of optimism about raising interest rates, the pair is witnessing a rise at the beginning of this week’s trading, and breaching the 1.01457 level cancels the negative scenario

Australian Dollar against US Dollar

The Australian dollar is awaiting the interest decision by the Central Bank of Australia tomorrow morning, Tuesday, November 1 basis point, which indicates a decline in the Australian dollar against the US dollar in terms of tight monetary policies, and also the end of the week employment data could reflect the direction of the week’s movements
Technically, the pair is trading in a general bearish direction, and maintaining the 0.65430 level supports the negative scenario and the targets of the Australian dollar against the US dollar are at 0.62111 and 0.60829 levels

The most important economic data and news for this week

Tuesday 1 November

Australian Dollar: interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia
Australian Central Bank President Philip Lowe's speech
New Zealand Dollar: rate of change in employment
Unemployment rate

Wednesday 2 November

New Zealand Dollar: Speech from Central New Zealand President Adrian Orer
US Dollar: rate of change in private sector jobs (ADP)
Interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech

Thursday 3 November

Swiss Franc: Consumer Price Index
British Pound: interest rate decision by the British Central Bank
US Dollar: Unemployment Claims Rate
Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (ISM)

Friday 4 November

US dollar: rate of change in private sector employment
Unemployment rate
Canadian Dollar: Employment Change Rate
Unemployment rate