Fiper | Retail Sales

Retail Sales

The retail sales statement determines the value of sales at the retail level, and is one of the first indicators published in the month about consumer behavior, and therefore the market is sensitive to any surprises from this report.
US retail trade was unchanged in September 2022, contravening market expectations of a 0.2% advance, as high inflation and rising borrowing costs weighed on consumer demand. Revenue decreased at auto and parts dealers (-0.4%), gas stations (-1.4%), building materials stores (-0.4%), and electronics stores (-0.8%). Furniture stores (-0.7 percent), sporting goods, hobbies, musical instruments, bookstores (-0.7 percent), and miscellaneous retail stores (-2.5 percent). Meanwhile, sales at groceries rose 0.4 percent, buoyed by higher food prices. Core retail sales that exclude cars, gasoline, building materials and food services, which closely align with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product, rose 0.4 percent last month. Year on year, retail sales growth slowed to a five-month low of 8.2 percent

Forecast for today's retail sales statement and how it affects the currency

Estimate for today's statement is 1%.
In the event that the statement is issued at a rate higher than expectations, it will affect the currency positively and vice versa

Core Retail Sales

The core retail sales indicator is derived from retail sales, and the component auto sales is omitted. Retail sales excluding this rapidly changing component are believed to be the best indicator of the underlying trend of consumption. Auto sales make up about 25% of retail sales, but they can change quickly from month to month, which can distort the picture of the general index
US retail sales excluding autos rose 0.1 percent month-on-month in September 2022, after a 0.1 percent decline the previous month and compared with market expectations for a 0.1 percent drop.

Forecast for today's core retail sales and how it affects the currency

Estimate for today's statement is 0.5%.
In the event that the statement is issued at a rate higher than expectations, it will affect the currency positively and vice versa