Non-Farm Employment Change- Unemployment Rate

Non-Farm Employment Change- Unemployment Rate

Non-Farm Employment Change

Determines the level of change in the level of people employed over the past month excluding the agriculture sector
Job creation is an important indicator of economic recovery, which is largely related to human resource conditions and a large part of GDP
The US economy likely created 205,000 jobs in February of 2023, up from the monthly average of 183,000 between 2010 and 2019, and the 100,000 jobs per month that are necessary to keep up with growth in the working-age population, and continue to signal the market Tight work, despite the height. Consumer prices and borrowing costs. Still, a reading of 205K would be the lowest since December 2020, after a surprise surge of 517K in January, which was driven by several factors including unusually warm weather and workers returning from a college strike in California. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 3.4%, matching low levels not seen since 1969. Wages are expected to rise 0.3%, as they were in January, but the rate of annual wage growth has likely accelerated to 4.7% from 4.4%

Outlook for today's statement and how it will affect the currency

The estimate for today's data is 224,000 jobs
If the data is released above expectations, the effect will be positive on the currency and vice versa

Unemployment rate

The unemployment rate determines the proportion of the total labor force that is not employed and actively seeking a job during the past quarter
The unemployment rate in the United States decreased to 3.4 percent in January 2023, the lowest level since May 1969 and less than market expectations of 3.6 percent, as the number of unemployed decreased by 28 thousand to 5.69 million and the number of employed increased by 894 thousand to 160.1 million. The latest jobs report came on the heels of a sharp drop in weekly jobless claims to a nine-month low and a larger-than-expected increase in the level of job openings in December to a five-month high, pointing to continued malaise. Labor market

Outlook for today's statement and how it will affect the currency

Markets expect the unemployment rate today to be 3.4%.
In the event that the unemployment rate records a reading higher than expected, we will have a negative impact on the currency, as it indicates a rise in unemployment, and vice versa

The timing of the release of employment data

The data will be released at exactly 4:30 Mecca Al-Mukarramah local time

A reminder about the data issued during this week related to employment, unemployment and the economy in general, which gives us an idea of the outcome of today's report

Core PCE price index printed positive at 0.6%, higher than the forecast of 0.4% (positive reading)

The Consumer Confidence Index recorded a negative reading of 102.9, lower than the forecast of 108.5 (negative reading)

The manufacturing PMI for the selected states came in negative at 47.7, below expectations of 47.9 (negative result)

US Employment Opportunities came out positive at 10.82M, above expectations of 10.58M (Positive)

ADP Nonfarm Payrolls Change came in positive at 242K, above forecasts of 197K (Positive)

Unemployment Claims came in at a negative reading of 211K, below expectations of a rise of 195K (Negative reading)

Services PMI for the United States printed positive at 55.1 higher than the forecast of 54.5 (positive reading)

Our expectations for today's labor market data

Recently, the markets witnessed very positive and continuous results for the US dollar on several levels, and in the last week we witnessed a decline in consumer confidence and a slight improvement in the decision to change jobs in the non-agricultural private sector issued by (ADP). We also witnessed a rise in unemployment complaints rates on the one hand. Economic data, as for the news, Jerome Powell’s testimony for this week turned the market’s outlook, as he spoke of his readiness to raise interest rates to a greater extent than the market’s expectations, which would have a negative impact on the labor market. For these reasons, today’s data is very basic and important for the coming period, as expectations indicate Employment in the private sector declined by 293 thousand from the previous month, we expect negative results or close to expectations for today, and this is due to the hawkish tone by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell