United States Retail Sales

Retail Sales

The retail sales statement determines the value of sales at the retail level, and is one of the first indicators published in the month about consumer behavior, and therefore the market is sensitive to any surprises from this report.
US retail sales rose 0.3% in August compared to July, after declining 0.4% in the previous month and exceeding expectations for a flat reading. Falling gasoline prices allowed consumers to buy other goods, with spending on cars rising (2.8%); miscellaneous stores (1.6%); food services and drinking places (1.1%); building materials and garden equipment (1.1%); sporting goods, hobbies, musical instruments and books (0.5%); general merchandise stores (0.5%); foods and beverages (0.5%); and clothing (0.4%). On the other hand, sales at petrol stations fell by 4.2%, and a decrease in sales in furniture stores (-1.3%) was also observed; Non-store retailers (-0.7%); health (-0.6%); and electronics (-0.1%). Excluding petrol stations, sales increased by 0.8%. Core retail sales that exclude cars, gasoline, building materials and food services are unchanged. Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation

Forecast for the retail sales statement and how it affects the currency

The estimate for today's statement is 0.2%.

In the event that the statement is issued at a rate higher than expectations, it will affect the currency positively and vice versa

Core Retail Sales

The core retail sales indicator is derived from retail sales, and the component auto sales is omitted. Retail sales excluding this rapidly changing component are believed to be the best indicator of the underlying trend of consumption. Auto sales make up about 25% of retail sales, but they can change quickly from month to month, which can distort the picture of the general index
US retail sales excluding autos fell 0.30 percent month-on-month in August of 2022, the first decline so far this year, and compared to expectations for a 0.1 percent gain.

Forecast for core retail sales and how it affects the currency

Estimate for today's statement is 0.1%.
In the event that the statement is issued at a rate higher than expectations, it will affect the currency positively and vice versa

The timing of the release of the retail sales statement

Retail sales are released at half past three in the evening Mecca time