Non-Farm Employment Change- Unemployment Rate

Non-Farm Employment Change

Determines the level of change in the level of people employed during the past month, with the exception of the agricultural sector
Job creation is an important indicator of economic recovery, which is closely related to the conditions of human resources and a large part of the gross domestic product
The US economy will likely add 200,000 jobs in October of 2022, which marks the third consecutive month of slowing job growth and the weakest reading since December of 2020. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.6% from 3.5%, and is likely to Wages are up 0.3%, as in the previous month, bringing the annual rate down to 4.7% from 5%. The leisure and hospitality sector is likely to have recorded solid job growth, while financial activities, transportation, warehousing, manufacturing and government salaries are likely to shed jobs. October numbers are likely to point to a strong albeit slowing labor market as labor shortages persist

Expectations for today's statement and how it affects the currency

The estimate for today's data is 197 thousand jobs
If the data is released above expectations, the impact on the currency will be positive and vice versa

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate determines the proportion of the total workforce that is not working and actively seeking a job during the past quarter
The US unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent in September 2022, matching a 29-month low in July and remaining below market expectations of 3.7 percent, in another sign that general labor market conditions in the world's largest economy remain tight. The number of the unemployed decreased by 261 thousand to 5.75 million in September, while the number of employed increased by 204 thousand to 158.9 million. The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3% from 62.4%

Expectations for today's statement and how it affects the currency

Markets expect the unemployment rate to reach 3.6% today
In the event that the unemployment rate recorded a reading higher than expectations, we will have a negative impact on the currency, as it indicates a rise in unemployment and vice versa

Data release time

The data will be released at exactly two thirty in the afternoon, Mecca time

A reminder about the data released during this week related to employment, unemployment and the economy in general, which gives us an idea of ​​the result of today's report

The core PCE price index came in at a rate of 0.5%, matching expectations

The manufacturing PMI for the selected states recorded a positive reading at 50.2, higher than expectations that indicated the 50 level (positive result)

The US job opportunity showed a noticeable increase of 10.72M, higher than expectations of 9.57M (positive result)

The Non-Farm Private Sector Employment Change Decision issued by (ADP) recorded a positive reading of 239K, higher than expectations of 178K (positive result)

The Unemployment Claims came in at a negative 217k, lower than expectations for a 220k hike, but the improvement is weak

The Services PMI for the United States recorded a negative reading of 54.4, lower than expectations that indicated a level of 55.5 (negative result)

Our expectations for today's labor market data

Based on the economic data released during the past weeks (mentioned above), most of which recorded positive readings, most notably the decision to change in the non-agricultural private sector jobs issued by (ADP), we expect positive results for employment data today and a stability or decline in the unemployment rate
Note: Traders should be aware that raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve by 75 basis points for this week and increasing the pace of monetary tightening may have a negative impact on the labor market, knowing that this matter was not applied in the last releases and we witnessed an improvement in the labor market despite raising interest rates