Non-Farm Employment Change- Unemployment rate

Non-Farm Employment Change

Determines the level of change in the level of people employed over the past month excluding the agriculture sector
Job creation is an important indicator of economic recovery, which is largely related to human resource conditions and a large part of GDP
The US economy is likely to add 200,000 jobs in November of 2022, which will be the smallest job increase since December of 2020, as the labor market returned to normal after the shock of the pandemic. Also, several major companies in the technology sector have announced layoffs. However, 200,000 job creation would indicate a healthy, tight market, above the pre-pandemic average of 150,000 to 200,000 jobs created per month. So far this year, job growth has averaged 407k per month compared to 562k in 2021. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is seen holding at 3.7% while wage growth is likely to slow. Wages are expected to rise 0.3%, down from 0.4% in October, dropping the annual rate to 4.6% from 4.7%.

Outlook for today's statement and how it will affect the currency

The estimate for today's data is 200,000 jobs
If the data is released above expectations, the effect will be positive on the currency and vice versa

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate quantifies the proportion of the total labor force that is not employed and actively seeking a job during the past quarter
The US unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage point to 3.7 percent in October 2022, up from a 29-month low in September of 3.5 percent and slightly above market expectations of 3.6 percent. The unemployment rate has been in a narrow range of 3.5 percent to 3.7 percent since March, which indicates that the labor market is indeed very tight, which in turn is likely to contribute significantly to inflationary pressure in the world's largest economy for some time to come. The number of unemployed rose by 306 thousand to 6.06 million in October, while the number of employed decreased by 328 thousand to 158.6 million. The labor force participation rate fell to 62.2% from 62.3%

Outlook for today's statement and how it will affect the currency

Markets expect the unemployment rate today to be 3.7%.
In the event that the unemployment rate records a reading higher than expected, we will have a negative impact on the currency, as it indicates a rise in unemployment, and vice versa

The timing of the data release

The data will be released at exactly 4:30 pm Mecca Al-Mukarramah time

A reminder about the data issued during this week related to employment, unemployment and the economy in general, which gives us an idea of the outcome of today's report

The core PCE price index came in at a negative rate of 0.2%, below the forecast of 0.3% (negative reading).

The manufacturing PMI for the specified states recorded a negative reading at 43, below the expected level of 45.9, which will negatively affect the currency (negative reading).

The US Employment Opportunity report printed positive at 10.33M, higher than the forecast of 10.24M (Positive reading).

The ADP Nonfarm Payrolls Change came in negative with a reading of 127K, lower than the forecast of 196K (Negative result).

Unemployment complaints recorded a positive reading of 225k, higher than the expectations that were indicating a rise of 234k (positive reading).

The Services PMI for the United States came out negative at 46.1, below the forecast of 48 (negative reading).

The US GDP came in at a positive rate of 2.9%, higher than the forecast of 2.8% (positive reading).

Our expectations for today's labor market data

Based on the economic data issued during the past weeks (mentioned above), most of which recorded negative readings, most notably the decision to change jobs in the non-agricultural private sector issued by (ADP), as well as the data that recorded positive data that were negative or declining compared to their results of the previous release, For these reasons, we expect negative results for today's employment data and stability in the unemployment rate