Non-Farm Employment Change- Unemployment rate

Non-Farm Employment Change

Determines the level of change in the level of people employed over the past month excluding the agriculture sector
Job creation is an important indicator of economic recovery, which is largely related to human resource conditions and a large part of GDP
The US economy is likely to add 200,000 jobs in December of 2022 which will be the lowest since December of 2020, after rising 263,000 in November. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 3.7%, near a 50-year low, and wages are likely to rise 0.4%, down from 0.6% in the previous month and push the annual rate down to 5%, and further down to 5.1%. The December report will likely continue to show employment slowing although it remains strong, as the labor market returns to normal after the shock of the pandemic. A reading of 200k for December would put average non-farm payrolls for 2022 at 375k, compared to 562k per month in 2021 and 168k in 2019. For 2023, the labor market is set to remain tight but job growth will slow further and at a higher rate. Unemployment is set to rise to 4.6%, according to the Fed's forecast. Big tech companies in particular have announced mass layoffs amid rising interest rates, weak consumer demand and a slowing global economy

Outlook for today's statement and how it will affect the currency

The estimate for today's data is 200,000 jobs
If the data is released above expectations, the effect will be positive on the currency and vice versa

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate determines the proportion of the total labor force that is not employed and actively seeking a job during the past quarter
The unemployment rate in the United States remained unchanged at 3.7 percent in November 2022, matching market expectations and holding near a 29-month low in September at 3.5 percent. The unemployment rate has been in a narrow range of 3.5 percent to 3.7 percent since March, indicating that a tight labor market is likely to continue contributing to inflationary pressure in the world's largest economy for some time to come. The number of unemployed rose by 48 thousand to 6.01 million in November, while the number of employed decreased by 138 thousand to 158.5 million.

Outlook for today's statement and how it will affect the currency

Markets expect the unemployment rate today to be 3.7%.
In the event that the unemployment rate records a reading higher than expected, we will have a negative impact on the currency, as it indicates a rise in unemployment, and vice versa

A reminder about the data issued during this week related to employment, unemployment and the economy in general, which gives us an idea of the outcome of today's report

The core PCE price index came in as expected at a rate of 0.2%.

The manufacturing PMI for the specified states recorded a negative reading at the level of 48.4, below the expected level of 48.5, which negatively affected the currency (Negative Reading).

The US Employment Opportunity report printed positive at 10.46M, higher than the forecast of 10.04M (Positive Result).

The Non-Farm Payrolls Decision issued by (ADP) recorded a positive reading of 235K, lower than the expectations that were indicating 152K (Positive Result).

Unemployment complaints recorded a positive reading of 204k, lower than the expectations that were indicating a rise of 230k (positive Result).

Our expectations for employment data today

Based on the economic data issued during the past weeks (mentioned above), most of which recorded positive readings, most notably the decision to change jobs in the non-agricultural private sector issued by (ADP), and on the other hand, reducing interest rates by the Federal Reserve supports the labor market, based on these Data We expect an improvement in employment data for today and stability or decline in unemployment rates

The timing of the data release

The data will be released at exactly 4:30 pm Mecca Al-Mukarramah time