Fiper | Retail Sales

Retail Sales

Retail Sales Statement It determines the value of sales at the retail level, and is one of the first indicators published in the month about consumer behavior, so the market is sensitive to any surprises from this report.
US retail sales fell 1.1% m/m in December 2022, after an upwardly revised 1% decline in November and worse than expectations for a 0.8% decline. Sales at petrol stations recorded the largest decline (-4.6%), followed by furniture stores (-2.5%), car dealers (-1.2%), electronics and home appliances (-1.1%), miscellaneous (-1.1%) and non-store retailers. (-1.1%). In contrast, sales increased by 0.3% at stores of building materials and garden equipment (0.3%) and sporting goods, musical instruments and booksellers (0.1%). Sales at food and beverage stores were flat. Retail sales were not adjusted for inflation and part of the decline in December could be explained by lower commodity prices during the month and holiday shopping being pushed back to October. However, excluding sales at petrol stations, sales fell 0.8%, in another sign of weak holiday shopping and slowing consumer spending amid rising inflation and interest rates.

Outlook for today's statement and how it will affect the currency

The estimate for today's statement is 1.9%.
In the event that the statement is issued at a rate higher than expectations, it affects the currency positively, and vice versa

Core Retail Sales

The core retail sales index is derived from retail sales, in which the vehicle sales component is omitted. Retail sales excluding this rapidly changing component are thought to be the best indicator of the underlying trend of consumption. Car sales constitute approximately 25% of retail sales, but they may change rapidly from one month to another, which may distort the image of the general index.
US retail sales excluding automobiles contracted 1.1% month over month in December of 2022, the most since February 2021 and worse than the market estimate of a 0.4% decline.

Outlook for today's statement and how it will affect the currency

The estimate for today's statement is at a rate of 0.9%.
In the event that the statement is issued at a rate higher than expectations, it affects the currency positively, and vice versa