Weekly Overview 19/9/2022

US Dollar Index

The US dollar is facing an important week, as it awaits the interest decision issued by the Federal Reserve, and expectations indicate an increase in interest by 75 basis points, bringing the interest rate at 3.25%. Of course, an increase in inflation contributed to raising interest rates in this way to curb its rise.
The US dollar is still maintaining the positive frame, and the last corrective decline maintained the 107.480 level, which represents the last support line to maintain the bullish trend, and of course the next targets are located at 110.620 levels, and if we witness a closing above the 110.805 level, the next target will be at Level 111,680
This indicator is now trading in a horizontal zone, i.e. volatile trading, and this is normal due to the interest news and investors’ anticipation for it

Gold

Gold is trading on the daily chart in a general bearish trend forming high and high bottoms below each other, which indicates the bearish momentum
Breaching the level of 1676.042 and recording a bottom below it (i.e. closing on the daily frame) indicates the possibility of touching lower levels than what is currently traded, and 1590 and 1490 are not far away, and the next target for gold is at the level of 1632,264, but the most important thing is to maintain the 1737.214 level And not to breach it upwards to maintain the bearish momentum on gold
On the four-hour time frame, we can identify a selling area between the level of 1725.517, which represents the 88% level of the Fibonacci retracement tool, and the level of 1717.886, which represents 78% of the Fibonacci retracement tool, and these levels we used with the use of the Fibonacci corrective tool from the top No. (1) To the bottom number (2) and the goals are divided into two
The first target is located at the bottom number (2), which is located at the level of 1650
The second goal is at the level of 1632,264
The interest decision by the Federal Reserve will greatly affect gold’s movements, and in the event of recording a bottom below 1654.191, then 1680,441 becomes the dividing line that must be maintained and not breached upwards to maintain the negative frame

Crude Oil

Negative pressures still dominate crude oil as a result of fears of a slowdown in economic growth. Oil is still trading in a general bearish trend, maintaining the level of 90.13 and not breaching it upwards. It maintains the first target located at the 81.51 level, and in the event of recording a bottom below this target level. The second is located at the level of 73.13

Euro against US dollar

Like the US dollar, the euro is trading in a horizontal trading range between the level of 1.00366 as a resistance line and the level of 0.99447 as a support line. It is expected that we will keep the movements of the euro against the dollar in this way, in anticipation of the interest decision by the Federal Reserve, in case the level of 1.00366 is breached, we will witness a rise To the level of 1.01275 and in case the level of 0.99447 is breached, we will witness more decline to the level of 0.98659
In the event that the interest rate is raised higher than expected by the Federal Reserve, we will witness the euro trade below the level of 0.98659

The British pound against the US dollar

An upcoming week for this pair, where we have the interest decision by the Federal Reserve, followed by the interest decision by the Central Bank of England, but expectations are different, as expectations indicate a 50 basis point hike for the British Central Bank, unlike the Federal Reserve, which indicates a 75 basis point interest rate hike and if expectations are applied. We will witness a decline in the sterling to incur more losses and the 1.10 level will not be far
Also, technically, this pair is trading in a general bearish trend, forming lower bottoms than each other. The rise for this pair will only be corrective to complete the bearish trend, and the next target is at the level of 1.10648

The US dollar against the Canadian dollar

More gains for this pair as a result of the brilliance of the US dollar index with expectations of a rate hike in the meeting on Wednesday, which pushes the pair to form higher tops than each other, and the next target is at 1.33705, which it has not touched since October 30, 2020.
In the event of breaching the 1.32498 level and closing a candle on the four-hour frame below, we will witness a corrective decline to the 1.31674 level

The US dollar against the Japanese yen

The pair is trading at its highest levels in more than 20 years, and with more monetary tightening from the US Federal Reserve, the probability of a breach of 145.106 is expected to rise, a level that it has not breached since 1998, and in case it breaks the next target at 146.970

Australian dollar against the US dollar

The Australian dollar pair against the US dollar is trading in a general bearish trend, and the employment data released last week adds losses to this pair, and also the Fed rate hike will push the Australian dollar to touch the 0.66091 level

New Zealand dollar against the US dollar

The New Zealand dollar is trading in a bearish direction against the US dollar, and the next target for this pair is at the level of 0.59209, but traders should monitor the level of 0.60284 in the event that it breaks upwards, we will witness a corrective rise to the level of 0.60820 before retreating, but this scenario remains valid if Not touching the level 0.59209

The most important economic data and news for this week

Tuesday 20 September

Australian dollar: the minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia
Canadian dollar: Consumer Price Index

Wednesday 21 September 

US dollar: interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve

Thursday, September 22

Japanese Yen: BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Swiss franc: interest decision by the Swiss central bank
British pound: interest rate decision issued by the British Central Bank

Friday 23 September

Eurozone: Services and Manufacturing PMI for France
German Manufacturing and Services PMI
British Pound: Service and Manufacturing PMI
US Dollar: Services PMI
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech